Today we look at an english company that has a relatively short life but neverthelss in this period made already its mark in the industry is in, this is Glencore, ticker GLEN LN: we are attaching the monthly chart where there can be derived many useful information, here the ones we found:
Overall Trend and Cycles:
- Cyclical Nature: The chart clearly demonstrates Glencore’s highly cyclical nature, with significant multi-year bull and bear markets.
- Previous Major Declines and Reversals:
- 2012-2016 Decline: There was a 14-month decline (from late 2014 to early 2016) before a “big green candle with volume explosion around the low” marked a significant reversal. This bottom led to a substantial rally of +523%. The MACD also showed a clear bottom and crossover during this period.
- 2018-2020 Decline: Following a peak in mid-2018, the stock experienced a 28-month decline that also concluded with a “big green candle with volume explosion around the low,” signaling another reversal. This led to an even larger rally of +398%. Again, the MACD bottomed and crossed over before this strong upward movement.
Current Situation (2023-2025):
- Current Decline: The chart notes that the stock has been in a “Currently 13 months decline” (as of the chart’s latest point, likely mid-2025 given the current date).
- Missing Reversal Signal: A crucial observation is that the current decline is “missing the big green candle yet, potentially after a higher low to be made soon.” This suggests that while the decline has been significant, the definitive reversal signal (a large green candle on high volume) that marked previous bottoms is not yet present.
- Volume Profile: While there isn’t a “volume explosion around the low” like in previous reversals, there’s a relatively higher volume bar coinciding with the recent lows compared to the preceding downtrend, but not yet explosive.
- MACD Status: The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is “Still too early MACD is telling us.” This implies that while the MACD lines are low and the histogram is deeply negative, a clear bullish crossover (blue line above red line) that historically confirmed reversals is not yet evident. The MACD seems to be flattening or showing early signs of potentially turning, but no strong buy signal.
Potential Future Movement (Based on Historical Patterns):
- Potential for Higher Low: The annotation “potentially after a higher low to be made soon” suggests that the current downtrend might find support at a level higher than the previous cycle’s ultimate low (around 100-120 GBX in 2016 and 2020), indicating a possible consolidation or turning point.
- Anticipation of Reversal Candle: Investors might be watching for a strong bullish engulfing candle or a large green candle on high volume to confirm a significant bottom, similar to previous cycles.
- MACD Confirmation: A bullish MACD crossover would further strengthen any reversal signal.
In Summary:
Glencore is in a significant multi-month decline, typical of its cyclical nature. While the decline is comparable in duration to previous major corrections, the key technical signals that confirmed past reversals—specifically a “big green candle with volume explosion” and a clear MACD bullish crossover—are not yet fully present. The chart suggests the market might be anticipating a potential higher low and a subsequent strong reversal signal, but it has not occurred as of the chart’s latest data point.
But for those who aren’t familiar with Glencore, here’s a quick introduction on the company.
Glencore PLC (LSE: GLEN) is a major global player in the natural resources sector, known for its diversified operations in commodity trading and mining.
Here’s a breakdown of what you should know about Glencore:
1. Business Segments:
- Industrial: This segment focuses on the production of a wide range of commodities, including:
- Metals and Minerals: Copper, zinc, nickel, cobalt, and ferroalloys.
- Energy Products: Thermal coal, coking coal, and oil.
- Agricultural Products: Grains, oilseeds, and cotton (though the sale of its interest in Viterra to Bunge is pending regulatory approvals).
- Marketing: Glencore’s marketing arm is one of the world’s largest, providing sourcing, logistics, transportation, storage, and financing services for various commodities. This business segment aims to move commodities from areas of surplus to areas of demand.
2. Key Financials and Performance (as of early-mid 2025 data):
- Adjusted EBITDA (2024): $14.4 billion (down 16% from 2023, primarily due to lower energy coal prices).
- Funds from Operations (FFO) (2024): $10.5 billion (up 11% from 2023).
- Net Loss (2024): $1.6 billion (attributable to equity holders).
- Net Debt (Year-end 2024): $11.2 billion (increased from $4.9 billion in 2023, partly due to the acquisition of EVR).
- Dividend Yield (Trailing): Around 2.37% (with a total dividend of $0.10 paid last year).
- Earnings Per Share (EPS) (TTM): -£0.0996.
- Market Capitalization: Approximately £37.28 billion (as of July 14, 2025).
3. Stock Performance and Outlook:
- Recent Share Price: As of July 15, 2025, Glencore’s share price on the London Stock Exchange (GLEN:LSE) was around 314.48 GBX.
- Recent Trends: The stock has seen a recovery recently, with shares up 36% from their April 7, 2025 low. However, over the past 12 months, the share price has been down around 34%.
- Analyst Consensus: The overall consensus recommendation for Glencore is “Buy” or “Strong Buy” among analysts.
- Average Price Target: Analysts have an average one-year price target for Glencore around 373.7p to 396.08 GBX, suggesting potential upside from current levels. Forecasts vary, with a low of around 303 GBX and a high of around 493.50 GBX.
- Factors Impacting Performance:
- Commodity Prices: Fluctuations in prices of metals, minerals, and energy products (especially coal) significantly impact Glencore’s earnings. Lower thermal and metallurgical coal prices have weighed on performance.
- Acquisitions: The acquisition of 77% of Teck’s metallurgical coal business (EVR) in July 2024 is a notable development, expanding Glencore’s coking coal exposure.
- Global Economic Growth and Trade: Concerns about tariffs and slowing economic growth can affect demand for commodities.
- Geopolitical Risks: Glencore has mining operations in higher-risk countries.
- Copper Focus: Glencore aims to increase its copper production, recognizing its importance in the energy transition.
4. Leadership:
- CEO: Gary Nagle
5. Unique Aspects:
- Diversified Model: Glencore’s strength lies in its integrated business model, combining both mining operations and a large-scale marketing and trading division. This allows it to leverage synergies and navigate various market conditions.
- Coal Production: Unlike some other major miners, Glencore intends to produce thermal coal until its mines are exhausted, citing responsible rehabilitation practices.
Important Note: Stock prices and financial figures are subject to change rapidly. Always refer to the latest financial reports and market data for the most up-to-date information. This information is for general knowledge and should not be considered financial advice.
