Here you can find an update on the Momentum ETF chart, which is always very dear to me.
The update I’m providing shows my forecast as it has been for a few months now, which hasn’t changed and shows how the market is moving within or outside of my forecast.
The forecast, my plan A, was that this month the market and the ETF in question would peak, then correct in wave 4, and then make a final impulsive bullish move before a subsequent period that will be very complicated but, at the same time, I think very rewarding if followed.
The initial target for the wave 5 top was around 92 euros, and I expected it for October 2026.
The deviation from my plan A is that the ETF has already reached the target of 92 this month.
So what does this deviation from my plan A mean?
Well, the ETF is reaching its target with much less strength than the February 2025 high, as can be seen from the downward-sloping arrows in the three indicators below.
This has a unique interpretation: this high is therefore already the top of wave 5.
However, this does not necessarily mean that we can expect the period of high volatility that follows the top of wave 5 on a long-term chart, the one shown in the graph, or at least not immediately.
Elliott Wave Theory also includes extensions, and therefore wave 5 can still extend, though certainly not indefinitely. From this movement, which began at the April 2025 low, we can already count 9 waves, a sign that we are already in extension.
The indicators, especially the strength ones like the RSI and the PPO, are widely divergent, and my feeling is that the correction that will emerge will be reasonably deep (10-15%) due to the minimal strength the ETF and the market are demonstrating.
To demonstrate that what I’m saying also applies to the market as a whole, I’ve attached the monthly chart of the SP500 in dollars below, highlighting the three indicators:
The top I expected was for the end of April: although I knew iwhat the ETA was, I personally preferred to close the long positions earlier and already open the shorts, which will be increased in due course, not yet today.
